Looking solely at the trends after September 2025, many in the industry would argue: memory chips suddenly went on a speculative frenzy.
DDR3, DDR4, DDR5, eMMC —These products, which have been repeatedly written off in recent years and burdened by inventory so heavy that their prices fell “below cost,” have seen their values surge severalfold in just two to three months.
Not a gradual uptick,but a sudden, unchecked rally.
Some raked in figures they wouldn’t have dared to dream of in the past few years — all within a month or two;Many others amassed tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of yuan in just a few months!More, however, stood still — filled with envy yet riddled with apprehension.
Memory chips have become the undisputed darling of the semiconductor industry,the cream of the crop in terms of market performance.
Yet in my view, what truly merits discussion is never “how much they’ve risen.”
But rather —how exactly did all this unfold step by step?
1.This market rally did not originate in 2025.
Behind every seemingly “sudden” market rally lies an overlooked history.
To trace the roots of this memory chip rally, we need to go back at least to 2022—if not earlier.
During those years, the memory chip industry was mired in a prolonged downward cycle:
- Massive capacity released during the boom period
- End-demand cooled rapidly amid the macroeconomic backdrop
- DRAM and NAND prices declined consistently
- Inventory continued to pile up
- Eventually evolving into price inversion and systemic losses
By 2023, this was no longer just a “difficult phase”—it had become unsustainable.
2.Why couldn’t Samsung truly withstand the pressure this time?
No analysis of this memory chip rally is complete without mentioning one name: Samsung.
For decades of memory industry cycles, Samsung was almost always “the last survivor standing in price wars”.Leveraging its scale, cash flow and staying power, it outlasted the cycles until competitors were driven out of the market.
But in 2023, this playbook failed for the very first time.
The reason was not sentiment —it was hard numbers.
Take the Semiconductor Business (DS Division) of Samsung Electronics — which encompasses Memory, Foundry and System LSI — as an example:
- Q1 2023: Operating loss of KRW 4.58 trillion
- Q2 2023: Operating loss of KRW 4.36 trillion
- Q3 2023: Operating loss of KRW 3.75 trillion
- Q4 2023: Operating loss of KRW 2.18 trillion
The full-year cumulative loss exceeded KRW 14 trillion, equivalent to approximately RMB 4.7 billion.
It is common knowledge across the industry:The core drag behind this round of losses stemmed from inventory overhang and falling prices within the memory business itself.
A critical fact bears noting:While losses were narrowing quarter by quarter, Samsung still had not truly exited the loss-making territory by the end of 2023.
This meant that continuing to tough it out with price wars in low-margin consumer-grade memory productswas no longer the optimal strategy.
3.The Memory Market’s Turning Point: Samsung’s Strategic Production Reduction
In April 2023, Samsung made a public announcement:It would slash memory chip production to a “meaningful level”.
The statement itself sounded mild,yet against the backdrop of industry history, it carried momentous weight.
It signaled a pivotal shift:The industry leader had concluded that trading losses for time was no longer a worthwhile strategy.
Shortly after, Micron, SK Hynix and other major players followed suit one after another.For the first time, the supply side began a genuine contraction.
This, was the true starting point of the current memory market rally.
4.The Overlooked Year: Unveiling the True 3-Wave Uptrend of the Memory Market
If we only fixate on the frenzy that unfolded after September 2025, this memory market rally could easily be mislabeled a “sudden explosion”.
But zoom out the timeline, and it reveals itself as a full-fledged, yet understated, three-wave uptrend.
Wave 1: Late 2023 – Early 2024 (Bottoming & Rebound)With clear signals of production cuts, prices broke free from extreme lows – yet market sentiment remained mired in pessimism.
Wave 2: Q2–Q3 2024 (Consolidation & Oscillation)Some product categories retreated while others edged upward slowly, with the market bottom never breached in any meaningful way.This was the most easily overlooked phase of the entire cycle.
Early Stage of Wave 3: Jan–Jun 2025 (Gradual Climb)AI hype started to build, but price gains stayed modest, lacking a broad consensus to drive widespread participation.
It was not until June that the rally picked up steam – and by September, it had spiraled into an unchecked surge.
5.AI’s Role: Not the Sole Cause, but the Amplifier
To be clear:
AI did not directly blow up demand across all memory products.
Its most immediate impact was driving demand for server-grade memory solutions like HBM and DDR5 RDIMMs.As for the drastic price swings seen in consumer and general-purpose products such as DDR4 and eMMC, they were amplified by a confluence of additional factors:
- Technology generation shift
- End-of-life (EOL) expectations
- Forward stocking activities
It was the simultaneous resonance of these multiple forcesthat inflated spot market prices to their current levels.
At its core, this rally is the result of a sharp, short-term decline in supply elasticity.
6. At This Juncture, We Have Effectively Entered the “Speculative Realm”
To delve deeper, we will inevitably confront a more fundamental question:
Is AI ultimately a bubble?
If AI-driven demand can be sustained by rapid growth,the supply-demand imbalance may gradually ease.
If capital investment retreats ahead of genuine demand,a market pullback will eventually follow.
The crux of the matter is this:No one has the answer right now.
This is no longer a problem that can be fully resolved through industry analysis —it boils down to the inherent uncertainty of humanity’s technological development trajectory.
7. Everyone Is Essentially Engaged in a High-Stakes Gamble
Many only see the sky-high risks in the spot market,yet in reality, no player is truly insulated from risk—from the bottom to the very top of the industrial chain.
- Traders are grappling with inventory overhang and price volatility.
- Chipmakers are shouldering the pressure of capacity management and capital allocation.
- In the capital market, storage and AI-related securities are also swinging violently at elevated levels.
This is a phase where everyone is wagering amid uncertainty.
8. The High-Volatility Phase: A Window of Opportunity for Long-Term Industry Insiders
Elevated market levels do not equate to a lack of opportunities.
In this volatility phase, the market typically exhibits three key characteristics:
- Active trading with robust price discovery
- Divergence in risk appetites across participants
- Emergence of discounted transactions
More importantly, this is the stage when end customers tend to proactively seek out new, more stable supply partnerships.
This is not about speculating on market trends;it is a window of opportunity to trade professional expertise, credibility and long-term operational capabilities for tangible gains.
There is only one prerequisite:Maintain a profound respect for risk.
Conclusion: This Is Not Just a Market Rally, but an Era of Unprecedented Opportunities
Looking back on this memory chip rally, it has never been a straight upward trajectory.
It featured a prolonged downturn,a measured recovery,and ultimately, a release of pent-up market sentiment.
The real frenzy only unfolded in the final stretch.
Price volatility, in essence, is a mirror —it does not reflect the chips themselves,but rather human nature, capital flows, and the choices we make in the face of uncertainty.
You can look forward to the opportunities ahead,but always hold risk in high regard.
As Charles Dickens put it:
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”
And right now,we are right in the thick of this promising moment.
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Let’s join forces to help our mutual clients optimize cost efficiency, while also seizing the opportunity to share the dividends amid this ongoing memory and storage chip shortage boom.