As 2026 Begins, Memory Chip Shortage Persists Unabated
Over the past month, business hotels such as DoubleTree by Hilton and Nine Tree Premier in Pangyo, Gyeonggi – do, South Korea, have quietly emerged as the frontline of the memory chip procurement battle. Procurement executives from the headquarters of tech giants including Amazon, Google, Apple and Dell have taken long – term leases and settled in these hotels. Their mission is clear – every day, they travel to the Semiconductor Division (DS) of Samsung Electronics and the headquarters of SK hynix, which are about 30 to 40 minutes’ drive away, aiming to secure long – term supply contracts spanning two to three years to lock in stable supply volumes.
However, the two memory chip leaders, which hold the core production capacity, have refused to sign long – term contracts and insisted on quarterly contracting. What’s more, according to today’s news from The Korea Economic Daily, Samsung and SK hynix have proposed price hikes to their DRAM customers for servers, PCs and smartphones. The quotation for the first quarter of this year will surge by 60% – 70% compared with that of the fourth quarter of last year.
A semiconductor industry insider commented, “Customers are well aware that it is difficult for Samsung and SK hynix to rapidly expand production capacity in the short term.” Therefore, the industry expects that even with such a substantial price increase, customers will have to accept it. DRAMeXchange, a market research firm, analyzed, “Major customers believe they are fully capable of bearing the expenditure required for AI infrastructure. They are unlikely to strongly oppose the DRAM price hike, because in the eyes of these companies, achieving profitability of inference – based AI businesses is more important.” The firm also raised its forecast for the fixed transaction price increase of server – used DRAM in the first quarter of this year to 60% – 65%.
The confidence of memory chip leaders to push through substantial price hikes stems precisely from the expectation that the server DRAM shortage will worsen. At present, memory chip manufacturers are focusing their efforts on the production of HBM3E, which has led to the squeeze of server DRAM production capacity and the gradual widening of the supply – demand gap. Meanwhile, companies like Google and Microsoft are expanding their inference – based AI service businesses, driving a surge in demand for general – purpose server DRAM. Broadcom, which is developing ASICs for customers, is also increasing its HBM3E orders, further exacerbating the DRAM shortage.
Against this backdrop, the upward trend of memory chip prices is expected to persist throughout 2026. Multiple investment banks have predicted that on an annual basis, the average selling price (ASP) of server – used DRAM will surge by up to 144% year – on – year, and they have accordingly raised their performance expectations for related enterprises. Citigroup forecasts that Samsung Electronics’ operating profit will reach 155 trillion won this year, an increase of 253% over last year. Morgan Stanley predicts that SK hynix’s operating profit will hit 148 trillion won this year, soaring by 224% year – on – year.
As memory chip prices skyrocket, the cost burden on smartphone, PC and server manufacturers is mounting continuously. According to data from IDC, the proportion of memory semiconductors in the total cost of smartphones has risen from about 15% to more than 20% recently.